5 Preliminary analysis in qualitative terms
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Statutory Documents - IMO Publications and Documents - Circulars - Maritime Safety Committee - MSC/Circular.1002 – Guidelines on Alternative Design and Arrangements for Fire Safety – (adopted 26 June 2001) - Annex - Guidelines on Alternative Design and Arrangements for Fire Safety - 5 Preliminary analysis in qualitative terms

5 Preliminary analysis in qualitative terms

  5.1 Definitions of scope

  5.1.1 The ship, ship system(s), component(s), space(s) and/or equipment subject to the analysis should be thoroughly defined. This includes the ship or system(s) representing both the alternative design and arrangements and the regulatory prescribed design. Depending on the extent of the desired deviation from prescriptive requirements, some of the information that may be required includes: detailed ship plans, drawings, equipment information and drawings, fire test data and analysis results, ship operating characteristics and conditions of operation, operating and maintenance procedures, material properties, etc.

  5.1.2 The regulations affecting the proposed alternative design and arrangements, along with their functional requirements, should be clearly understood and documented in the preliminary analysis report (see paragraph 5.4). This should form the basis for the comparative analysis referred to in paragraph 6.4.

  5.2 Development of fire scenarios

  5.2.1 Fire scenarios should provide the basis for analysis and trial alternative design evaluation and, therefore, are the backbone of the alternative design process. Proper fire scenario development is essential and depending on the extent of deviation from the prescribed design, may require a significant amount of time and resources. This process can be broken down into four areas:

  • .1 identification of fire hazards;

  • .2 enumeration of fire hazards;

  • .3 selection of fire hazards; and

  • .4 specification of design fire scenarios.

  5.2.1.1 Identification of fire hazards

This step is crucial in the fire scenario development process as well as in the entire alternative design methodology. If a fire hazard or incident is omitted, then it will not be considered in the analysis and the resulting final design may be inadequate. Fire hazards may be identified using historical and statistical data, expert opinion and experience and hazard evaluation procedures. There are many hazard evaluation procedures available to help identify the fire hazards including HAZOP, PHA, FMEA, “what-if", etc. As a minimum, the following conditions and characteristics should be identified and considered:

  • .1 pre-fire situation: ship, platform, compartment, fuel load, environmental conditions;

  • .2 ignition sources: temperature, energy, time and area of contact with potential fuels;

  • .3 initial fuels: state (solid, liquid, gas, vapour, spray), surface area to mass ratio, rate of heat release;

  • .4 secondary fuels: proximity to initial fuels, amount, distribution;

  • .5 extension potential: beyond compartment, structure, area (if in open);

  • .6 target locations: note target items or areas associated with the performance parameters;

  • .7 critical factors: ventilation, environment, operational, time of day, etc.; and

  • .8 relevant statistical data: past fire history, probability of failure, frequency and severity rates, etc.

  5.2.1.2 Enumeration of fire hazards

All of the fire hazards identified above should be grouped into one of three incident classes: localised, major, or catastrophic. A localised incident consists of a fire with a localised affect zone, limited to a specific area. A major incident consists of a fire with a medium affect zone, limited to the boundaries of the ship. A catastrophic incident consists of a fire with a large affect zone, beyond the ship and affecting surrounding ships or communities. In the majority of cases, only localised and/or major fire incidents need to be considered. Examples where the catastrophic incident class may be considered would include transport and/or offshore production of petroleum products or other hazardous materials where the incident effect zone is very likely to be beyond the ship vicinity. The fire hazards should be tabulated for future selection of a certain number of each of the incident classes.

  5.2.1.3 Selection of fire hazards

The number and type of fire hazards that should be selected for the quantitative analysis is dependent on the complexity of the trial alternative design and arrangements. All of the fire hazards identified should be reviewed for selection of a range of incidents. In determining the selection, frequency of occurrence does not need to be fully quantified, but it can be utilised in a qualitative sense. The selection process should identify a range of incidents which cover the largest and most probable range of enumerated fire hazards. Because the engineering evaluation relies on a comparison of the proposed alternative design and arrangements with prescriptive designs, demonstration of equivalent performance during the major incidents should adequately demonstrate the design's equivalence for all lesser incidents and provide the commensurate level of safety. In selecting the fire hazards it is possible to lose perspective and to begin selecting highly unlikely or inconsequential hazards. Care should be taken to select the most appropriate incidents for inclusion in the selected range of incidents.

  5.2.1.4 Specification of design fire scenarios

Based on the fire hazards selected, the fire scenarios to be used in the quantitative analysis should be clearly documented. The specification should include a qualitative description of the design fire (e.g., ignition source, fuel first ignited, location, etc.), description of the vessel, compartment of origin, fire protection systems installed, number of occupants, physical and mental status of occupants and available means of escape. The fire scenarios should consider possible future changes to the fire load and ventilation system in the affected areas. The design fire(s) will be characterised in more detail during the quantitative analysis for each trial alternative design.

  5.3 Development of trial alternative designs

At this point in the analysis, one or more trial alternative designs should be developed so that it can be compared against the developed performance criteria. The trial alternative design should also take into consideration the importance of human factors, operations, and management as reflected in part E of SOLAS chapter II-2. It should be recognized that well defined operations and management procedures may play a big part in increasing the overall level of safety.

  5.4 Preliminary analysis report

  5.4.1 A report of the preliminary analysis should include clear documentation of all steps taken to this point, including identification of the design team, their qualifications, the scope of the alternative design analysis, the functional requirements to be met, the description of the fire scenarios and trial alternative designs selected for the quantitative analysis.

  5.4.2 The preliminary analysis report should be submitted to the Administration for formal review and agreement prior to beginning the quantitative analysis. The report may also be submitted to the port State for informational purposes, if the intended calling ports are known during the design stage. The key results of the preliminary analysis should include:

  • .1 a secured agreement from all parties to the design objectives and engineering evaluation;

  • .2 specified design fire scenario(s) acceptable to all parties; and

  • .3 trial alternative design(s) acceptable to all parties.


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