|Clasification Society 2023 - Version 9.37
Statutory Documents - IMO Publications and Documents - Resolutions - Maritime Safety Committee - Resolution MSC.429(98)/Rev.1 - Revised Explanatory Notes to the SOLAS Chapter II-1 Subdivision and Damage Stability Regulations - (adopted on 11 November 2020) - Annex - Revised Explanatory Notes to the SOLAS Chapter II-1 Subdivision and Damage Stability Regulations - Part A - Introduction
Part A - Introduction
1 The harmonized SOLAS regulations on subdivision and damage stability, as contained in SOLAS chapter II-1, are based on a probabilistic concept which uses the probability of survival after collision as a measure of ships' safety in a damaged condition. This probability is referred to as the "attained subdivision index A" in the regulations. It can be considered an objective measure of ships' safety and, ideally, there would be no need to supplement this index by any deterministic requirements.
2 The philosophy behind the probabilistic concept is that two different ships with the same attained index are of equal safety and, therefore, there is no need for special treatment of specific parts of the ship, even if they are able to survive different damages. The only areas which are given special attention in the regulations are the forward and bottom regions, which are dealt with by special subdivision rules provided for cases of ramming and grounding.
3 Only a few deterministic elements, which were necessary to make the concept practicable, have been included. It was also necessary to include a deterministic "minor damage" on top of the probabilistic regulations for passenger ships to avoid ships being designed with what might be perceived as unacceptably vulnerable spots in some part of their length.
4 It is easily recognized that there are many factors that will affect the final consequences of hull damage to a ship. These factors are random and their influence is different for ships with different characteristics. For example, it would seem obvious that in ships of similar size carrying different amounts of cargo, damages of similar extents may lead to different results because of differences in the range of permeability and draught during service. The mass and velocity of the ramming ship is obviously another random variable.
5 Owing to this, the effect of a three-dimensional damage to a ship with given watertight subdivision depends on the following circumstances:
6 Some of these circumstances are interdependent and the relationship between them and their effects may vary in different cases. Additionally, the effect of hull strength on penetration will obviously have some effect on the results for a given ship. Since the location and size of the damage is random, it is not possible to state which part of the ship becomes flooded. However, the probability of flooding a given space can be determined if the probability of occurrence of certain damages is known from experience, that is, damage statistics. The probability of flooding a space is then equal to the probability of occurrence of all such damages which just open the considered space to the sea.
7 For these reasons and because of mathematical complexity as well as insufficient data, it would not be practicable to make an exact or direct assessment of their effect on the probability that a particular ship will survive a random damage if it occurs. However, accepting some approximations or qualitative judgments, a logical treatment may be achieved by using the probability approach as the basis for a comparative method for the assessment and regulation of ship safety.
8 It may be demonstrated by means of probability theory that the probability of ship survival should be calculated as the sum of probabilities of its survival after flooding each single compartment, each group of two, three, etc., adjacent compartments multiplied, respectively, by the probabilities of occurrence of such damages leading to the flooding of the corresponding compartment or group of compartments.
9 If the probability of occurrence for each of the damage scenarios the ship could be subjected to is calculated and then combined with the probability of surviving each of these damages with the ship loaded in the most probable loading conditions, the attained index A as a measure for the ship's ability to sustain a collision damage can be determined.
10 It follows that the probability that a ship will remain afloat without sinking or capsizing as a result of an arbitrary collision in a given longitudinal position can be broken down to:
11 The first three of these factors are solely dependent on the watertight arrangement of the ship, while the last two depend on the ship's shape. The last factor also depends on the actual loading condition. By grouping these probabilities, calculations of the probability of survival, or attained index A, have been formulated to include the following probabilities:
12 This concept allows a rule requirement to be applied by requiring a minimum value of A for a particular ship. This minimum value is referred to as the "required subdivision index R" in the present regulations and can be made dependent on ship size, number of passengers or other factors legislators might consider important.
13 Evidence of compliance with the rules then simply becomes:
13.1 As explained above, the attained subdivision index A is determined by a formula for the entire probability as the sum of the products for each compartment or group of compartments of the probability that a space is flooded, multiplied by the probability that the ship will not capsize or sink due to flooding of the considered space. In other words, the general formula for the attained index can be given in the form:
13.2 Subscript "i" represents the damage zone (group of compartments) under consideration within the watertight subdivision of the ship. The subdivision is viewed in the longitudinal direction, starting with the aftmost zone/compartment.
13.3 The value of "pi" represents the probability that only the zone "i" under consideration will be flooded, disregarding any horizontal subdivision, but taking transverse subdivision into account. Longitudinal subdivision within the zone will result in additional flooding scenarios, each with its own probability of occurrence.
13.4 The value of "si" represents the probability of survival after flooding the zone "i" under consideration.
14 Although the ideas outlined above are very simple, their practical application in an exact manner would give rise to several difficulties if a mathematically perfect method was to be developed. As pointed out above, an extensive but still incomplete description of the damage will include its longitudinal and vertical location as well as its longitudinal, vertical and transverse extent. Apart from the difficulties in handling such a five-dimensional random variable, it is impossible to determine its probability distribution very accurately with the presently available damage statistics. Similar limitations are true for the variables and physical relationships involved in the calculation of the probability that a ship will not capsize or sink during intermediate stages or in the final stage of flooding.
15 A close approximation of the available statistics would result in extremely numerous and complicated computations. In order to make the concept practicable, extensive simplifications are necessary. Although it is not possible to calculate the exact probability of survival on such a simplified basis, it has still been possible to develop a useful comparative measure of the merits of the longitudinal, transverse and horizontal subdivision of a ship.